“How much should we spend on CTV?” depends primarily on one factor: market size. The same $50K monthly budget that dominates Lincoln, Nebraska barely registers in Chicago.
The Market Size Framework
CTV budget requirements scale with population and competition:
Small market (DMA 100+): Smaller audience, less competition, budget goes further Mid-size market (DMA 50-100): Moderate scale, competitive but not saturated Major market (DMA 25-50): Significant population, established competitors Top market (DMA 1-25): Massive audience, intense competition, premium pricing
Small Market Budgets (DMA Rank 100+)
Population: Under 500,000 Examples: Lincoln NE, Amarillo TX, Fargo ND, Springfield MO
| Budget Level | Monthly Spend | What You Get |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | $10-15K | Limited reach, frequency building |
| Working | $15-25K | Solid reach, measurable impact |
| Strong | $25-40K | Market presence, competitive visibility |
Recommendation: $15-25K/month for sustainable presence
Why it works: Smaller markets have fewer households to reach. Your budget builds meaningful frequency quickly. Competition for CTV inventory is typically lighter.
Typical metrics at working budget:
- Monthly impressions: 350,000-600,000
- Household reach: 40-60% of target
- Weekly frequency: 3-5 exposures
Mid-Size Market Budgets (DMA Rank 50-100)
Population: 500,000 - 1.5M Examples: Louisville KY, Oklahoma City, Memphis, Richmond VA
| Budget Level | Monthly Spend | What You Get |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | $20-30K | Basic presence, limited frequency |
| Working | $30-50K | Real market presence |
| Strong | $50-75K | Competitive pressure, strong frequency |
Recommendation: $30-50K/month for meaningful impact
Why it matters: Mid-size markets have enough population that entry-level budgets get diluted. Working budgets build the frequency needed to drive recall and action.
Typical metrics at working budget:
- Monthly impressions: 750,000-1,250,000
- Household reach: 35-50% of target
- Weekly frequency: 3-4 exposures
Major Market Budgets (DMA Rank 25-50)
Population: 1.5M - 3M Examples: San Diego, Denver, St. Louis, Portland, Charlotte
| Budget Level | Monthly Spend | What You Get |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | $35-50K | Presence, limited reach |
| Working | $50-80K | Competitive presence |
| Strong | $80-120K | Strong market position |
Recommendation: $50-80K/month to compete effectively
Why it scales: Larger populations require more impressions to build awareness. Competition for premium inventory increases prices. Budget thresholds rise accordingly.
Typical metrics at working budget:
- Monthly impressions: 1,200,000-2,000,000
- Household reach: 30-45% of target
- Weekly frequency: 2-4 exposures
Top Market Budgets (DMA Rank 1-25)
Population: 3M+ Examples: Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Philadelphia, Atlanta
| Budget Level | Monthly Spend | What You Get |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | $50-75K | Minimal presence |
| Working | $75-150K | Competitive visibility |
| Strong | $150-300K+ | Major player status |
Recommendation: $100K+/month to meaningfully compete
Why it’s expensive: Top markets have massive populations, premium inventory costs, and intense competition. Entry-level budgets spread too thin to build frequency or awareness.
Typical metrics at working budget:
- Monthly impressions: 2,000,000-4,000,000
- Household reach: 25-40% of target
- Weekly frequency: 2-3 exposures
The Minimum Viable Budget
There’s a floor below which CTV doesn’t make strategic sense:
Below Minimum Thresholds
- − Frequency too low for recall
- − Sample size too small for optimization
- − Attribution data statistically unreliable
- − Impact difficult to measure
If you can’t meet minimum thresholds, consider concentrating budget in other channels until you can afford meaningful CTV presence.
Budget Allocation Within Campaigns
Once you set total budget, allocate across components:
| Component | % of Total |
|---|---|
| Media (impressions) | 70-80% |
| Management/platform | 10-15% |
| Data/targeting | 5-10% |
Example: $50K monthly budget
- Media: $37,500-$40,000
- Management: $5,000-$7,500
- Data: $2,500-$5,000
This doesn’t include creative production. Budget that separately.
Scaling Considerations
Starting Up
Begin at working budget level for your market. This provides enough scale to generate meaningful data while building initial awareness.
Proving ROI
Run 90 days minimum at working budget before evaluating. ROAS improves 6.6% after 30 days and 24% after 90 days. Short tests miss CTV’s compounding effect.
Scaling Up
Once ROI is proven, scaling follows diminishing returns:
- First $50K has maximum impact per dollar
- $50-100K continues efficient reach building
- $100K+ reaches more households but incremental efficiency declines
Competitive Response
When competitors increase CTV presence, maintaining share of voice may require budget increases. Monitor competitive activity quarterly.
Budget vs. Results Expectations
What should different budgets achieve?
| Monthly Budget | Expected Leads | Cost Per Lead |
|---|---|---|
| $25K | 50-75 | $333-500 |
| $50K | 100-150 | $333-500 |
| $100K | 175-275 | $364-571 |
| $150K | 250-400 | $375-600 |
CPL increases slightly as budgets grow because optimal audiences saturate first. But absolute lead volume keeps climbing. And that’s what matters for case generation.
Seasonal Budget Adjustments
Consider adjusting budgets seasonally:
Increase budgets:
- January-February (New Year resolution period)
- Q4 (holiday travel, winter accidents)
- Local event periods (local festivals, sports seasons)
Potential decreases:
- Summer months (vacation season, lower TV viewing)
- Q1 if competitors pull back
Maintain baseline presence year-round; pulse up during high-opportunity periods.
Multi-Market Budgeting
For firms in multiple DMAs:
Option A
Option B
Option 3: Test and expand. Working budget in one market, entry in others. Scale winners.
Most firms see better ROI from Option 1. Dominance in one market beats presence in several.
References
- MNTN Research. (2023). Increased investment in CTV leads to better performance. https://research.mountain.com/trends/data-reveals-increased-investment-in-ctv-leads-to-better-performance/