If you want to understand how mass tort advertising really works, study Roundup. No other case demonstrates the verdict-to-advertising connection as clearly.
The Event-Driven Playbook
Roundup advertising followed litigation events with remarkable precision:
August 2018: The Verdict That Changed Everything
A California jury awarded $289 million to a groundskeeper who claimed Roundup caused his non-Hodgkin lymphoma.
Plaintiffs’ lawyers were ready:
- 281 Roundup ads ran just before the verdict (anticipating the win)
- 3,503 additional spots aired later that month
- 7,113 ads costing $1.4 million ran in September 2018
The verdict was the trigger. Advertising was the response.
August 2019: Settlement Rumors Peak
When rumors circulated that Bayer might seek an $8 billion settlement, advertising exploded again:
- Monthly Roundup TV spending hit $18.3 million. a single-month record
- Every major mass tort advertiser was buying inventory
- Competition drove up both ad costs and case acquisition prices
The pattern was clear: settlement possibility → advertising surge → case inventory building. This dynamic plays out across all mass tort advertising categories.
The Economics Today
Roundup has matured into a late-stage tort with relatively predictable economics. Industry benchmarks suggest:
| Factor | Typical Range |
|---|---|
| Cost per compensable case | ~$5,500 |
| Estimated attrition | 20% |
| Settlement stage | Late |
| Settlement range | $100K-$125K |
| Timeline to settlement | 6-18 months |
Optimized campaigns with better creative and targeting may outperform these benchmarks.
The Settlement Lifecycle
Roundup Advertising Lifecycle
Phase 1: Scientific Controversy
Before major verdicts, Roundup litigation was building but advertising was modest. The science linking glyphosate to cancer was contested.
Phase 2: Verdict Validation
Multiple plaintiff verdicts, $289M, $80M, $2.1B, validated the litigation. Advertising exploded as firms rushed to build inventory.
Phase 3: Settlement Framework
Bayer announced a $10.9 billion settlement framework in 2020, later expanded. Advertising moderated as structures solidified.
Phase 4: Residual Activity
Some advertising continues for new diagnoses and late filers, but peak advertising has passed.
What Roundup Teaches
Timing Is Everything
The firms that built Roundup inventory at $2,000-$3,000 per case in 2018 have much better economics than those who entered at $5,500 in the settlement phase.
Early positioning matters enormously.
Events Create Windows
Verdicts, FDA announcements, and settlement news create advertising windows. Being ready to scale when triggers hit is the competitive advantage.
Roundup advertisers who moved within days of the August 2018 verdict captured cases at better economics than those who entered weeks later.
Advertising Follows Money
The $18.3 million peak month in August 2019 wasn’t random. It coincided with $8 billion settlement rumors. Advertisers invest when settlement visibility is highest.
Diminishing Returns
As more advertising floods a tort, acquisition costs rise and quality may decline. Early advertising faces less competition and captures more responsive claimants.
The Creative Evolution
Roundup advertising evolved over its lifecycle:
Early Phase: Scientific Focus
Initial ads emphasized the cancer link, often featuring studies and medical claims. Target: people with non-Hodgkin lymphoma who used Roundup.
Growth Phase: Urgency Messaging
As verdicts mounted, ads added urgency: “Time may be limited,” “Don’t wait,” “Deadline approaching.”
Settlement Phase: Compensation Focus
Later ads emphasized compensation possibility: “Billions being paid,” “You may be entitled to significant compensation.”
The messaging tracked where the litigation stood.
Roundup vs. Other Torts
Comparing Roundup to other major mass torts:
| Tort | Stage | Cost/Case | Settlement | Advertising Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roundup | Late | $5,500 | $100-125K | Moderate |
| Camp Lejeune | Mid/Late | $6,500 | $100-175K | Declining from peak |
| Mesothelioma | Late | $7,500 | $90-185K | Sustained |
| Hair Relaxer | Early | $4,500 | $75-125K | Growing |
Roundup sits in the “known economics, reduced opportunity” quadrant, good for firms with existing inventory, less attractive for new entry. Today’s growth channel for reaching affected populations is streaming TV advertising, where competition is still lighter than broadcast.
For PI Firms
The Referral Play
If clients mention Roundup exposure, knowing the landscape helps:
- Cases are still being processed
- Settlement structures exist
- Referral fees apply
- Connecting clients to specialists adds value
The Lesson
Roundup demonstrates the entire mass tort advertising lifecycle:
- Scientific/legal trigger
- Verdict validation
- Advertising explosion
- Settlement framework
- Advertising moderation
- Residual activity
Understanding this pattern helps identify where emerging torts sit, and when advertising opportunity is highest. It also informs how firms should structure their overall law firm advertising budget.