Mass tort advertising isn’t gambling. It’s math. Behind every TV commercial and Facebook ad is a detailed financial model. Understanding these economics explains why over $400 million flows into mass tort advertising annually.
For how these economics compare to personal injury, see our mass tort vs PI CTV comparison.
The Cost-Per-Case Landscape
Not all mass torts are created equal. Industry benchmarks for acquisition costs vary nearly 4x across categories:
| Tort | Typical CPA | Stage | Attrition | Settlement Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tylenol | ~$2,550 | Early | 30% | $60K-$90K |
| PFAS | ~$3,000 | Mid/Late | 25% | $75K-$175K |
| Hernia Mesh | ~$3,800 | Late | 30% | $60K-$80K |
| NEC Baby Formula | ~$4,000 | Mid | 30% | $100K-$300K |
| Hair Relaxer | ~$4,500 | Early | 30% | $75K-$125K |
| Roundup | ~$5,500 | Late | 20% | $100K-$125K |
| Talc | ~$5,500 | Late | 30% | $100K-$125K |
| Camp Lejeune | ~$6,500 | Mid/Late | 30% | $100K-$175K |
| Asbestos Lung Cancer | ~$7,500 | Late | 20% | $90K-$185K |
| Paraquat | ~$9,950 | Mid/Late | 30% | $105K-$250K |
These figures represent industry benchmark averages. Optimized campaigns with better targeting, creative, and intake processes can meaningfully outperform these numbers.
Understanding Attrition
Not every acquired case makes it to settlement. Attrition reflects cases that:
- Don’t meet medical criteria on deeper review
- Have exposure documentation issues
- Fall outside statute of limitations
- Claimants become unresponsive
- Cases are otherwise non-compensable
Attrition Rates by Tort
| Tort | Attrition Rate | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Asbestos | 20% | Mature, well-understood criteria |
| Roundup | 20% | Established medical qualification |
| PFAS | 25% | Defined exposure populations |
| Most others | 30% | Standard industry expectation |
A 30% attrition rate means acquiring 100 cases yields approximately 70 compensable cases.
Campaign Economics: A $5M Example
Let’s model a $5 million mass tort campaign across different torts:
PFAS Campaign ($5M)
| Metric | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cost per case | , | $3,000 |
| Cases acquired | $5M ÷ $3,000 | 250 |
| Attrition (25%) | 250 × 0.75 | 188 final cases |
| Settlement range | , | $75K-$175K |
| Average settlement | , | $125,000 |
| Total settlements | 188 × $125K | $23.5M |
| 40% fee | $23.5M × 0.40 | $9.4M |
| ROI | $9.4M ÷ $5M | 1.88x on fees |
Camp Lejeune Campaign ($5M)
| Metric | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cost per case | , | $6,500 |
| Cases acquired | $5M ÷ $6,500 | 90 |
| Attrition (30%) | 90 × 0.70 | 63 final cases |
| Settlement range | , | $100K-$175K |
| Average settlement | , | $137,500 |
| Total settlements | 63 × $137.5K | $8.7M |
| 40% fee | $8.7M × 0.40 | $3.5M |
| ROI | $3.5M ÷ $5M | 0.70x on fees |
NEC Baby Formula Campaign ($5M)
| Metric | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cost per case | , | $4,000 |
| Cases acquired | $5M ÷ $4,000 | 150 |
| Attrition (30%) | 150 × 0.70 | 105 final cases |
| Settlement range | , | $100K-$300K |
| Average settlement | , | $200,000 |
| Total settlements | 105 × $200K | $21M |
| 40% fee | $21M × 0.40 | $8.4M |
| ROI | $8.4M ÷ $5M | 1.68x on fees |
The MOIC Calculation
Sophisticated mass tort investors use MOIC (Multiple on Invested Capital) to compare opportunities:
| Tort | Low MOIC | High MOIC |
|---|---|---|
| Tylenol | 4.7x | 7.1x |
| PFAS | 5.0x | 11.7x |
| NEC Formula | 5.0x | 15.0x |
| Hair Relaxer | 3.3x | 5.6x |
| Hernia Mesh | 3.2x | 4.2x |
| Roundup | 3.6x | 4.5x |
| Talc | 3.6x | 4.5x |
| Camp Lejeune | 3.1x | 5.4x |
| Asbestos | 2.4x | 3.1x |
| Paraquat | 3.5x | 5.0x |
Higher MOIC generally means:
- Lower acquisition cost relative to settlement value
- Lower attrition
- Shorter time to settlement
Settlement Timing Matters
A dollar today is worth more than a dollar in three years. Settlement timing dramatically affects real returns:
| Stage | Timeline to Settlement | Torts |
|---|---|---|
| Early | 30-48 months | Tylenol, Hair Relaxer |
| Early/Mid | 24-36 months | Some emerging |
| Mid | 18-30 months | NEC Formula |
| Mid/Late | 12-24 months | PFAS, Paraquat, Camp Lejeune |
| Late | 6-18 months | Roundup, Talc, Hernia Mesh, Asbestos |
Early-stage torts offer lower acquisition costs but longer waits and higher uncertainty. Late-stage torts cost more but settle faster with clearer economics.
The Camp Lejeune Economics Shift
Camp Lejeune perfectly illustrates how economics change:
Before August 2022 (pre-legislation):
- Case acquisition: ~$1,000
- Risk: High (law might not pass)
- Settlement: Unknown
August-December 2022 (gold rush):
- Case acquisition: $1,000 → $5,000+
- Risk: Moderate (law passed, settlement unknown)
- Competition: Exploding
2024 (mature):
- Case acquisition: ~$6,500
- Risk: Lower (settlement frameworks developing)
- Economics: Tighter margins
Firms that acquired at $1,000 have 6.5x better economics than those entering at $6,500.
Cost Components
That $6,500 Camp Lejeune case cost includes:
Media/Advertising (40-50%)
- TV airtime
- Digital campaigns
- Social media
- Creative production
Intake/Call Center (15-20%)
- Call handling
- Initial qualification
- Data collection
- Follow-up
Contract Processing (10-15%)
- Retainer agreements
- Document collection
- Client communication
Medical Records (15-20%)
- Record retrieval (~$300/case)
- Medical review
- Qualification assessment
Overhead/Margin (10-15%)
- Operations
- Technology
- Compliance
- Profit margin
What Drives Cost Differences
Why does Tylenol cost $2,550 while Paraquat costs $9,950?
Lower Cost Torts
Tylenol ($2,550):
- Broad exposure population (everyone uses acetaminophen)
- Easy to reach via mass media
- High awareness of controversy
- BUT: Significant legal uncertainty
PFAS ($3,000):
- Defined populations (firefighters, military)
- Efficient targeting
- Growing awareness
- Moderate legal development
Higher Cost Torts
Paraquat ($9,950):
- Narrow population (agricultural workers)
- Harder to reach
- Requires specialized media
- Medical qualification is complex
Asbestos ($7,500):
- Aging, shrinking population
- Saturated with decades of advertising
- High competition for remaining claimants
- Complex exposure documentation
For PI Firms: Reading the Economics
Even without direct mass tort participation, understanding these economics matters:
Referral Value
Mass tort referral fees typically range 15-33% of the handling firm’s fee. On a $100,000 settlement with 40% contingency and 25% referral fee:
- Settlement: $100,000
- Handling firm fee: $40,000
- Referral fee: $10,000
Knowing acquisition costs helps evaluate whether to pursue cases directly or refer.
Competitive Context
When $6,500 is flowing into Camp Lejeune case acquisition, that capital competes with traditional PI advertising for TV inventory and digital space. Understanding mass tort economics helps contextualize your own personal injury advertising costs.
Opportunity Assessment
If a client mentions exposure to an emerging tort, these economics help evaluate whether to:
- Refer immediately
- Investigate further
- Build direct capability
The Bottom Line
Mass tort advertising is a financial operation. The firms and funders winning are those who:
- Identify torts early. capturing $1,000 cases before they become $6,500 cases
- Model accurately. understanding true attrition and settlement expectations
- Deploy capital efficiently. matching tort selection to risk tolerance and timeline
- Scale appropriately. $5-20 million campaigns per tort is typical deployment
The math is transparent. The execution is what separates winners from losers. For context on how these numbers compare to broader firm budgets, see what 3,720 firms actually spend on advertising.