Every mass tort follows a pattern. Understanding the lifecycle, and where a tort sits within it, determines whether mass tort advertising investment produces 5x returns or losses.
The Six Phases
Phase 1: Triggering Event
Something creates legal viability:
Scientific triggers:
- FDA warning or safety alert
- Academic study linking product to harm
- Whistleblower revelations
- Media investigation
Legislative triggers:
- New law creating liability pathway (Camp Lejeune)
- Regulatory change
- Statute of limitations extension
Legal triggers:
- First significant verdict
- Class certification
- MDL formation
Examples:
- Camp Lejeune: Justice Act signed (August 2022)
- Roundup: $289M California verdict (August 2018)
- Hair Relaxer: NIH study published (October 2022)
Phase 2: Early Advertising
First movers test the waters:
- Small TV buys in targeted markets
- Digital campaigns to gauge response
- Call center volume assessment
- Legal theory development
Economics: Case acquisition $1,000-$2,500 Risk: High, litigation outcomes uncertain Competition: Low. Few players yet
Who enters: Sophisticated aggregators, well-funded specialists betting on validation.
Phase 3: Verdict Validation
Plaintiffs win key cases:
- Bellwether trials produce verdicts
- Settlement discussions begin
- Media coverage increases
- Public awareness grows
What happens to advertising:
- Spending increases 3-5x
- More players enter
- Acquisition costs begin rising
Roundup example:
- Pre-verdict (August 2018): 281 ads
- Post-verdict same month: +3,503 ads
- September 2018: 7,113 ads ($1.4M)
Phase 4: Spending Explosion
The gold rush:
- National TV saturation
- All major aggregators competing
- Acquisition costs peak
- Case inventory building at scale
Economics: Acquisition costs 2-5x early phase Risk: Moderate, validation proven, settlement timing unknown Competition: Intense
Camp Lejeune example:
- 2022 spending: $111M+ (TV alone)
- Case costs: $1,000 → $5,000+ in months
- Every legal advertiser in market
Phase 5: Settlement Framework
Settlement structures emerge:
- Defendant(s) announce settlement frameworks
- Case values become clearer
- Processing and payout begins
- Inventory value crystallizes
What happens to advertising:
- New case acquisition slows
- Focus shifts to processing existing inventory
- Some advertisers exit
- Residual campaigns for late filers
Phase 6: Moderation/Resolution
Wind-down:
- Major settlements paid
- Advertising returns to low levels
- Remaining cases processed
- Tort becomes “mature”
Examples: Roundup, Talc (settlement frameworks in place but not fully resolved)
Mature indefinitely: Mesothelioma (new diagnoses continue, advertising persists at steady level)
The Lifecycle in Practice
Camp Lejeune: Compressed Timeline
| Phase | Timing | What Happened |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Trigger | Aug 2022 | Justice Act signed |
| 2. Early | Aug 2022 | Immediate advertising surge |
| 3. Validation | Aug 2022 | Legislative pathway = built-in validation |
| 4. Explosion | Aug-Dec 2022 | $111M+ TV spend |
| 5. Framework | 2023-2024 | Navy ELCR process, federal litigation |
| 6. Moderation | 2024+ | Advertising declining |
Camp Lejeune was unique: the legislative trigger provided instant validation, compressing phases 1-3 into weeks.
Roundup: Classic Pattern
| Phase | Timing | What Happened |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Trigger | 2015+ | IARC classification, early lawsuits |
| 2. Early | 2017-2018 | Growing advertising, legal development |
| 3. Validation | Aug 2018 | $289M verdict |
| 4. Explosion | 2018-2019 | $18.3M peak month (Aug 2019) |
| 5. Framework | 2020+ | $10.9B settlement announced |
| 6. Moderation | 2021+ | Advertising tapering |
Roundup followed the textbook pattern over 4+ years.
Zantac: The Failure Case
| Phase | Timing | What Happened |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Trigger | 2019 | FDA alerts, contamination concerns |
| 2. Early | 2019-2020 | Significant advertising investment |
| 3. Validation | Never | Courts excluded expert testimony |
| , | 2022+ | Cases dismissed, advertising collapsed |
Lesson: Not every triggering event produces a viable tort. Zantac shows what happens when Phase 3 validation doesn’t occur, advertising investment is lost.
Reading the Lifecycle
Where Are Current Torts?
| Tort | Current Phase | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Hair Relaxer | Phase 2/3 (Early validation) | Higher risk, better economics |
| PFAS/AFFF | Phase 4 (Growing) | Active opportunity, rising costs |
| NEC Formula | Phase 3/4 (Validation) | Bellwethers approaching |
| Paraquat | Phase 4/5 (Maturing) | Established but moderating |
| Camp Lejeune | Phase 5 (Framework) | Settlement clarity emerging |
| Roundup | Phase 5/6 (Mature) | Late-stage, tighter margins |
| Talc | Phase 5 (Complex) | Bankruptcy complications |
| Mesothelioma | Phase 6 (Perpetual) | Steady, mature |
| Tylenol | Phase 2? | Uncertain after adverse rulings |
Strategic Windows
Best economics (highest risk): Phase 2
- Acquisition: $1,000-$2,500/case
- Risk: Litigation may fail
- For: Sophisticated players with capital to risk
Best risk-adjusted (moderate risk): Phase 3-4
- Acquisition: $3,000-$6,000/case
- Risk: Validation proven, settlement timing unclear
- For: Most mass tort advertisers
Clearest economics (lowest returns): Phase 5-6
- Acquisition: $5,000-$10,000/case
- Risk: Lower, settlement frameworks known
- For: Conservative players wanting certainty
Timing Signals to Watch
Positive Signals (Tort Advancing)
- MDL formation or consolidation
- Bellwether trial scheduling
- Settlement discussions reported
- Defendant reserve increases
- Litigation funding interest
Negative Signals (Tort Stalling)
- Expert testimony challenges
- Daubert hearing losses
- Dismissal rulings
- Defendant bankruptcy maneuvers
- Scientific studies undermining causation
Red Flags (Exit Indicators)
- Court excludes plaintiff experts
- MDL dismissals
- Settlement talks collapse
- Key rulings against plaintiffs
- Advertising by competitors halting
For PI Firms: Lifecycle Awareness
Referral Timing
Understanding lifecycle helps evaluate referral decisions:
Early-phase torts: Higher referral fees possible (handling firms need inventory), but settlement timing uncertain.
Mature torts: Lower referral fees (more competition), but faster settlement and clearer outcomes.
Market Context
Mass tort advertising intensity affects your advertising costs, as we cover in our breakdown of what 3,720 firms actually spend:
- Phase 4 explosion: TV rates up, digital competition intense
- Phase 6 moderation: Some relief in advertising markets
Knowing which torts are in which phase helps anticipate competitive dynamics. Channels like streaming TV are becoming increasingly important in Phase 4 spending explosions.
Opportunity Recognition
When clients mention exposures:
- Phase 1-2 torts: May be worth investigating, could become significant
- Phase 5-6 torts: Clear referral opportunity with known economics
- Failed torts (Zantac): Manage expectations, may have no viable path
The Perpetual Exception: Mesothelioma
Mesothelioma defies normal lifecycle:
- Triggering event: 1970s-1980s (asbestos litigation begins)
- Current phase: Perpetual Phase 6
Why it persists:
- 20-50 year latency period
- New diagnoses continue from past exposure
- Exceptional case values justify ongoing advertising
- Established infrastructure (trusts, specialists)
$580 million over a decade, not from explosions, but from consistency. For the full picture of how mass tort fits into legal advertising, see the mass tort advertising overview.