The next Camp Lejeune. The next $111 million mass tort advertising explosion is forming right now. The question is which emerging tort will be the winner.
The Early-Stage Opportunity
Emerging mass torts offer a classic risk/reward tradeoff:
Lower acquisition costs. Competition is lighter, advertising rates are lower, and claimants are easier to reach.
Higher uncertainty. Litigation outcomes, settlement values, and case viability are less proven.
The firms that bet on winners capture excellent economics. Those that bet on losers (see: Zantac) waste investment.
The Hot One: Depo-Provera
What’s Happening
Depo-Provera is the birth control injection given every 3 months, manufactured by Pfizer. In March 2024, a BMJ study dropped a bomb: women using Depo-Provera for more than a year have 5.5 times higher risk of developing meningioma brain tumors.
The timeline:
- March 2024: BMJ study published showing 5.5x increased meningioma risk
- May 2024: Pfizer updates European warnings (not US)
- October 2024: First US lawsuits filed
- Late 2024: MDL established in Northern District of Florida (Judge M. Casey Rodgers)
- December 2025: FDA finally approves US label update
- Current: 348+ lawsuits filed, growing 20%+ monthly
Why It’s Significant
Clear scientific evidence. The 5.5x risk increase from BMJ is strong, similar to the scientific foundation for successful mass torts.
Defined population. Millions of women used Depo-Provera. Medical records documenting injections exist.
Warning label disparity. Canada and Europe had meningioma warnings for years. The US didn’t until December 2025, after the litigation began. That’s a plaintiff’s lawyer’s dream.
Experienced judge. Judge Rodgers previously oversaw one of the nation’s largest mass torts. She knows how to move litigation.
The Economics
It’s early, but industry observers are modeling Depo-Provera with characteristics similar to other brain tumor/medical device torts:
- Relatively defined injuries (meningioma diagnosis)
- Clear exposure documentation (injection records)
- Strong causation evidence (5.5x risk multiplier)
- Deep-pocket defendant (Pfizer)
Early-stage acquisition costs are typically lower than mature torts. Firms entering now will likely pay less than those entering in 12-18 months if the litigation succeeds.
Other Emerging Torts
Hair Relaxer (Uterine Cancer)
The claim: Chemical hair relaxer products cause uterine cancer, particularly affecting Black women.
Stage: Early, MDL filings growing, litigation theories developing.
Industry benchmarks:
| Factor | Typical Range |
|---|---|
| Cost per case | ~$4,500 |
| Attrition | 30% |
| Settlement range | $75K-$125K |
| Timeline | 30-48 months |
Advertising: Growing, particularly in urban markets targeting the affected demographic. Digital and social media prominent alongside TV, and streaming TV for law firms is becoming a key channel for reaching younger demographics.
Key consideration: Early-stage scientific and legal questions remain. The defined demographic (Black women) enables efficient targeting but requires culturally appropriate messaging.
PFAS/AFFF (Firefighting Foam)
The claim: PFAS “forever chemicals” in firefighting foam cause cancer and other health issues in firefighters and military personnel.
Stage: Mid/Late, MDL active, some settlement discussions.
Industry benchmarks:
| Factor | Typical Range |
|---|---|
| Cost per case | ~$3,000 |
| Attrition | 25% |
| Settlement range | $75K-$175K |
| Timeline | 12-24 months |
Opportunity: Defined populations (firefighters, military), clear exposure pathways, established science on PFAS dangers. Trade publications and targeted digital make reaching this audience efficient.
NEC Baby Formula
The claim: Cow’s milk-based formulas (Similac, Enfamil) given to preterm infants cause necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), a devastating intestinal disease.
Stage: Mid, MDL active, bellwether trials approaching.
Industry benchmarks:
| Factor | Typical Range |
|---|---|
| Cost per case | ~$4,000 |
| Attrition | 30% |
| Settlement range | $100K-$300K |
| Timeline | 18-30 months |
Advertising: Building, targeting parents of NICU infants. Sensitive messaging required given the emotional nature of infant injury. High case values if liability established.
Tylenol/Acetaminophen (Autism/ADHD)
The claim: Prenatal acetaminophen exposure causes autism and ADHD in children.
Stage: Early, facing legal challenges, some adverse rulings.
Industry benchmarks:
| Factor | Typical Range |
|---|---|
| Cost per case | ~$2,550 |
| Attrition | 30% |
| Settlement range | $60K-$90K |
| Timeline | 30-48 months |
Caution: Significant legal uncertainty. Expert testimony challenges have derailed some cases. This one could go either way.
Paraquat (Parkinson’s Disease)
The claim: Herbicide exposure causes Parkinson’s disease in agricultural workers.
Stage: Mid/Late, MDL active, bellwether trials conducted.
Industry benchmarks:
| Factor | Typical Range |
|---|---|
| Cost per case | ~$9,950 |
| Attrition | 30% |
| Settlement range | $105K-$250K |
| Timeline | 12-24 months |
Note: High settlement values support higher acquisition costs. Was the primary mass tort topic in 2021 before Camp Lejeune.
Comparing the Field
| Tort | Stage | Typical CPA | Settlement | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Depo-Provera | Early | TBD | TBD | Moderate (strong science) |
| Tylenol | Early | ~$2,550 | $60-90K | High |
| PFAS | Mid/Late | ~$3,000 | $75-175K | Moderate |
| NEC Formula | Mid | ~$4,000 | $100-300K | Moderate |
| Hair Relaxer | Early | ~$4,500 | $75-125K | Higher |
| Paraquat | Mid/Late | ~$9,950 | $105-250K | Lower |
These represent industry benchmark averages. Optimized campaigns with better targeting, creative, and intake processes routinely beat these numbers.
Lessons from Zantac
Not every emerging tort becomes the next Camp Lejeune. Zantac demonstrates the downside:
The hope: Ranitidine (Zantac) cancer claims could become a major mass tort.
The reality: Federal court decisions excluded plaintiffs’ experts and dismissed large portions of cases.
The result: TV and digital advertising that had been substantial fell sharply after adverse rulings.
Firms that invested heavily in Zantac inventory faced losses. This is the risk of early-stage torts, litigation viability isn’t guaranteed.
What to Watch
Near-Term (6-12 months)
- Depo-Provera MDL progress. bellwether selection, discovery
- PFAS settlement developments
- NEC bellwether trial outcomes
- Hair relaxer MDL progress
Medium-Term (12-24 months)
- Depo-Provera bellwether trials
- New tort categories emerging from regulatory/scientific developments
- Legislative triggers (like Camp Lejeune Justice Act)
- Verdict validation in current emerging torts
The Pattern to Watch
Successful mass torts follow a recognizable pattern:
Mass Tort Success Pattern
Scientific/Legal Trigger
Study, FDA warning, or legislation creates the legal pathway.
Early Legal Activity
First lawsuits filed, MDL formation begins.
Verdict Validation
First plaintiff verdicts establish litigation viability.
Advertising Explosion
Race to build inventory before settlement, peak spending phase.
Settlement Framework
Economics become clearer as settlement structures emerge.
Moderation
Advertising declines as opportunity matures, residual campaigns continue.
Depo-Provera is at stage 2, moving toward stage 3. The firms positioning now will capture better economics than those who wait for validation.
For PI Firms
The Referral Play
Build relationships with mass tort specialists. When clients mention exposure to emerging tort categories, connect them with handling firms and collect referral fees.
Lower risk, lower reward, but steady opportunity.
Selective Direct Participation
Some PI firms selectively participate in mass torts that match their capabilities:
- Geographic concentration of affected population
- Existing client relationships with exposure
- Partnership with experienced co-counsel
Market Awareness
Even without direct participation, understanding emerging torts helps with your broader personal injury advertising strategy:
- Recognize case potential when clients present
- Navigate competitive advertising in your market
- Position your practice against mass-tort-focused competitors
The Next Gold Rush
Somewhere in the current landscape, or in a tort not yet prominent, is the next Camp Lejeune. For context on how these campaigns fit the bigger picture, see our mass tort advertising overview. Depo-Provera has many of the ingredients: clear science, defined population, warning label failures, deep-pocket defendant.
The firms watching closest will capture the best economics when the trigger hits.